The DAoC 'random' number generator

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Cybwyn

Guest
Is it just me or has anyone else come across THIS sort of thing before?

I count 3 misses, then 2 evades then 7 more misses before hitting again. Just bad luck? Or something else?
 
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klavrynd

Guest
one of each 5000 players gets put in gimpmode, that means your dmg is sucky, your defence is sucky and random is generated on 1- rnd() , which is pretty cool when you're lottoing for items etc

i thought i was the only gimp, but you're #2
 
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Cybwyn

Guest
Originally posted by Lochlyessa
Try using styles? :/

1. I don't really see how that would make a difference anyway.

2. You'll see that I did use a style for the first 3 misses and first evade - after that I wanted to see how long it would go on for so I just sat back and waited.
 
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Lochlyessa

Guest
Originally posted by Cybwyn
1. I don't really see how that would make a difference anyway.

2. You'll see that I did use a style for the first 3 misses and first evade - after that I wanted to see how long it would go on for so I just sat back and waited.

1) ever heard of + to hit on styles? :/

2) Of course it's going to go on longer if you're just flailing away unstyled :/
 
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Sharma

Guest
Every now and again the "random" event generator deals a bad hand to people, not funny when tanking a blue con you miss every blow and die from it :(
 
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SilverHood

Guest
yeah

Like fighting a mob and it needing 1 hit, and you miss 10 times and die
 
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Goryk

Guest
It's not the random number generator, only the nature of random statistics. If a run like that never occured in the game, then the random generator would be biased. Someone has to get bad streaks every so often, and it happened to be you. Unstyled vs an orange con(I'm guessing) mob is going to have a reasonable miss rate and so it probably happens more often than you'd think. I know for a fact, I've crit hit 5 times in a row with my minstrel, with no mastery of pain. The good streaks will equal out the bad ones anyway :)
 
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Cybwyn

Guest
Fair comments about swinging unstyled but even so, I'd expect to land more than 1 out of 13 swings against a yellow con. Don't get me wrong - I'm not moaning, just interested to know if anyone else has come across the same thing. :)
 
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greenfingers

Guest
well not because friars are gimped, cuZ they aren't ... but that is VERY crappy % to hit :)

My scout and pala has the same problem once in a while missing 5 - 12 times in a row (yes, it says 12), and then fumbling and hits 7 times in a row ... now THAT's crappy !
 
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mark-

Guest
Bad Luck

Good Luck

Random == Random

(Yes, one is red con, one is yellow con, but that's not the point :p)

:m00:

edit: preemptive reply to OMG one is red one is yellow!!11
 
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Puppetmistress

Guest
Originally posted by Cybwyn
Is it just me or has anyone else come across THIS sort of thing before?

I count 3 misses, then 2 evades then 7 more misses before hitting again. Just bad luck? Or something else?


a) Is your weapon enchanted ?

b) Why is your buff-screen not showing up the castable self-buffs?

c) What is the con of your staff ?
 
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Slinker

Guest
Aye . if I could post it I would show you , missed 10 times in a row on a yellow con mob , yes I used styles all the way , also using a 99% enchanted Arcanite 2 handed sword . This from an Armsman :p . I am positive to this day it was because I was close to level and the game really wanted me dead .
 
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civy

Guest
Originally posted by Culurien
Aye . if I could post it I would show you , missed 10 times in a row on a yellow con mob , yes I used styles all the way , also using a 99% enchanted Arcanite 2 handed sword . This from an Armsman :p . I am positive to this day it was because I was close to level and the game really wanted me dead .

Had you just said .1 to ding or next pull should do it. That’s usually curtains for me.
 
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granny

Guest
Here's an easy little experiment you can do to demonstrate the nature of random numbers.

Open Excel, start a new sheet, in the first cell type =RAND() and then drag-copy that out for 40 cells horizontally, then drag-copy that row of 40 cells down to about 1000 (how many you can do before Excel complains depends on the amount of RAM your machine has, my work machine copes with ~40,000 cells total). Then set conditional formatting on all these cells such that any number <0.1 is red and any number >0.9 is blue.

Zoom out and have a look at the results. You'll probably notice some instances where you have 3 red cells adjacent. That's like doing /random 100 three times in a row and getting less than 10 each time. You'd feel pretty hard-done by if you were rolling for loot and that happened eh?

Now set the conditional formatting to colour the cells if they're <0.2 or >0.8 - chances are you may see patches where there's 5 or more red or blue cells adjacent. If you were in combat and hit one of those 5 red patches you'd more than likely miss every shot.

Fact is that random numbers are just that, random (assuming normal or continuous distributions here) and that purely by chance you can and do get "streaks" within sequential random numbers. However human perception is tuned to find patterns - it's pretty much how we work, we recognise patterns in things. Therefore we are far more sensitive to noticing what appears to be odd "clusters" of results and we feel there's something wrong if, for instance, we roll 95+ three times in a row on a /random 100. In actual fact this is to be expected at times.

This is also of course the basis behind the fallacy that crafting masterpieces come in streaks and that to increase your chances you should trinket until you get an MP then make the piece - it's nonsense of course but our perceptions fool us :)
 
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Cybwyn

Guest
Re: Re: The DAoC 'random' number generator

Originally posted by Puppetmistress
a) Is your weapon enchanted ?

b) Why is your buff-screen not showing up the castable self-buffs?

c) What is the con of your staff ?

a) Yep

b) I was resting and they had expired - I had my self buffs on during the fight

c) Yellow con 99% quality staff, enchanted and at 99% condition
 
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Tasans

Guest
Luck is important imo.
My sb once kill an orange mob with the offhand only(missed all styles even those with + to hit) , and then i 3 shotted the same kind of mob because i got dual crits and procs on every hit :)
 
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The Real Redi

Guest
I suffer too - i can beat orange eyed Fellwoods, without dropping below 40% health, reds without going below 25% but every now and then i sudden;y become uber-poop and miss 10+ times in a row. I kid myself that strafing a little, and re applying the /stick may rectify it, but it is as everything else is = random.

It is one of the most heart breaking things to have one swing needed to drop it, and after 7 or 8 misses, it kills you...

it sucks, it happens, deal with it <shrugs> we all get it...

Nerf Nerfing!
 

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