Interesting Discussion On MMORPGY Growth

[-Lonewolf-]

Dunno if the other mods have seen this or even GOA have seen it and its not fully upto date but it is a very interesting read

http://pweb.netcom.com/~sirbruce/Subscriptions.html

Read it and be interested

 

[galdora]

Thanks for that. Quite interesting. Especially about expansions not leading to new subscribers, but just a revenue spike as exisiting subscribers all buy it together. That'll be me for sure, 2 copies.

And I know there are some players for whom DAoC was their first MMOG

Nods. That's me.

p00n is still Whoodoo's biatch btw.

 

[-Lonewolf-]

Well its an interesting read from a business angle as it begins to identify that existing MMORPG's are not attracting new clients so potentially its becoming a war between the MMORPG's to attract the most members

 

[galdora]

Yea, and it shows that the expense of producing expansions will have to be covered by exisiting members purchasing it and staying in the game, rather than hoping for new members.

 

[rynnor]

Interesting but the data analysis is subject to debate.

Elementary marketing shows that products all tend to follow a lifecycle with definable points - initial high sales until maturity then tailing off numbers into decline.

I believe that Expansions function as an Extension strategy - If you look at EQ it has had regular expansions and consistently increasing subscriptions - thus when eq1 should have been in decline the expansions have maintained growth of subscriptions - its pretty obvious from the graphs that new people are entering into the equation rather than a fixed market (and lets be honest there is no fixed market as the figures for people with home net access are still increasing).

There will of course be an element of one feeding off another but generally a new mmorpg launch will actually expand the size of the pie

The analysis also assumes the original launch had lots of publicity - in the UK DAOC was not marketed so the expansion could pick up a lot of people who were just oblivious to the original launch.

 

[katt!]

a bit OT but if you enjoy discussions about mmorpgs etc. check out:

http://www.waterthread.org

 

[old.tRoG]

quite interesting, even just to see the actual figures (or thereabouts).

 

[Alrindel]

No-one has any really good idea of exactly where the online game business is going in the next couple of years because no-one is really sure what impact the following two things will have:

1) continually increased availability of cheap, flat-rate broadband access, particularly in Europe, and

2) the introduction of online connection kits for Playstation 2, Xbox and Gamecube

The market is going to expand in the next year for all online games including MMORPGs, but just precisely how much is anyone's guess.

 

[old.Trine Aquavit]

SWG
The Sims On-line

These will, I think, be the 'break-out' games for the MMORPG genre. Only a very small proportion of a potentially huge market (i.e. people who play games, are on-line and can afford a monthly subscription) have ever tried a MMORPG, particularly in the UK. Once more people take the plunge I reckon there's going to be a huge increase, and I think SWG (MMORPG based on the most successful movie franchise of all time) and the Sims On-line (MMORPG based on the most successful PC gaming franchise of all timne) will instigate this.

We haven't yet seen MMORPGing enter the mainstream outside Korea, but imagine the success of Lineage translated worldwide and the potential is mind-blowing.

I honestly wouldn't be surpised to see the number of active subscribers exceeding the 10 million mark after release of SWG/The Sims.

Fasten your seatbelts for the MMORPG take-off!