Experiences of O/C chances

[mehuge]

What is the real chance of success when overcharging?

I have heard it said that on 99% qual stuff it is possible to reliably overcharge with just 4x98% gems. But this info was second hand and I dont know how accurate it is.

I was aware that 3x99 and 1x98 was doable on 99% stuff. Ive done that myself successfully.

Leledia says only attempt 4pt on 99% qual stuff, but I guess that could be outdated.

I found this http://www.camelotherald.com/documentation/spellcraft/formula.html which tells how it works but it's still ambiguous.

For example 5pt o/c on 99% with 4x99% = +30% chance of imbune, is that 100+30% or just 30%? At just 30% it's crap odds, at 100+30% its a dead cert.

For 5pt o/c on 99% with 4x98% = +18% chance of imbune, so if it's 100+18% then it's still a dead cert, if its just 18% then not a cat in hells chance.

Basically what is the +% in relation to, what is the base chance?

I also believe there is some random factor involved when calculating chance, because I have had some stuff go boom that had +% chance and managed to imbune some stuff that had -% so there must be a random factor thrown in.

If the random factor is say +/- 20% then doing +18% is risky and +30% is completely safe.

It would be nice to know what this random and base chance elements are.

 

[oblivion_6]

on 99% ive went 5 oc on bout 4 sets of armour so thats 24 peices and none of them has blown up

 

[mehuge]

Originally posted by oblivion_6
on 99% ive went 5 oc on bout 4 sets of armour so thats 24 peices and none of them has blown up

Using what level gems?

 

[Draylor]

99% items, 4 99% gems, 5pt OC works every time

3 99% gems, 1 98% gem works almost every time. Then sooner or later the lazy SCer (that cant be bothered spending time to make the 4th gem 99%) will blow up the item being spellcrafted, possibly costing someone alot of gold.

There is a random element involved, but its nothing like the success/failure rate shown by Mythics published formula. The safest thing to do is just IGNORE Mythic's (and therefore the spellcrafting calculators) 'chance of success' calculations and stick to 99% gems for overcharging. Anything else, sooner or later, will cause problems.

 

[mehuge]

I want to know about 4x98% anyone tried it with any level of success?

CBA doing 3-4 hrs crafting for 1 order when I make only 1 plat max, especially as I can make 2 or 3 times as much in DF in the same time.

Maybe i need to charge 3 or 4 plat for a full suit, it may then *just* be worth the effort.

If I can reliably do 4x98 then it will take around an hour, I can charge less and make more profit per hour. Everyones happy.

 

[Draylor]

Using 4 98% gems will work at times - but failure rate will be unacceptably high. You WILL lose items from time to time. Just dont do it

Originally posted by mehuge
CBA doing 3-4 hrs crafting for 1 order when I make only 1 plat max, especially as I can make 2 or 3 times as much in DF in the same time.

3-4hours? Seems way too long.

Even with plenty of wasted time a typical suit (6 armour, 1 weapon, 1 shield) using all 99% gems should take around 2 hours.

If the profit isnt good enough for you - charge more. At least in Alb people still seem to be happy to pay plenty for SCing.

 

[Eggy]

3 x 99%
1 x 98%

Never failed for me, and I must have done 100 items.

With a decent system, SCing does not take long, I usually roll out full suits in about an hour (with customer there).

 

[iantheace]

Hmm

Well my Full MP chain/weapons all witha 37.5/32 O/C cost me 3,5P for the SC and it took about 4 hours to make. No peices blew up using 99% and MP gems. Ive now made about 30 MP items on a 37.5/32 O/C and none have blown up, ever.

 

[Sable]

Originally posted by mehuge
What is the real chance of success when overcharging?
...
For example 5pt o/c on 99% with 4x99% = +30% chance of imbune, is that 100+30% or just 30%? At just 30% it's crap odds, at 100+30% its a dead cert.

My interpretation of the formula is that you sc skill determines your base chance of success, to which bonuses (from quality) and penalties (from OC) are added, and as long as you come up at more than 0, you're safe.

My crappy 400+ sc'er (base OC chance of -10%, according to the formula) has 3 successful counts of 2-point OC on 99% items with mostly 97% gems -- the math says
(-10%) + (-20%) + (4 x 3%) + 18% = 0
I had one failure, but lost neither the item nor the gems. Next attempt was a success, so yes, there seems to be a random factor.

The general practice of 800+ crafters, 5pt OC 99% items and gems would give
30% + (-70%) + (4 x 8%) + 18% = 10%
Using one 98% gem, that's still 7%.

I haven't tested this -- I just found the formula now -- but if I do get around to it, I'll post actual data rather than random results.

 

[godfried]

2X98 and 2X99 on 5.5pt oc never failed and did lots
just make sure u always use 99% item and 4 gems (so 5.5oc with 2 gems will explode)

cheers

 

[mehuge]

Thanks godfried, thats the info I was after.

I had heard this was possible and doing 2x99 2x98 will make for much faster and cheaper SC's making it less boring for me and cheaper for the customer.

Now, to find a customer willing to let me use them as a guinipig :O
I find it hard enough persuading peeps that 3x99 1x98 is safe.

 

[Draylor]

Well - when it fails and you destroy an item that cost your customer a few plats enjoy explaining to them it was your fault but you considered it worth the risk since it saved you 5 minutes.

Sooner or later - itll happen.