% chance to craft a Masterpiece........

Jimbob

Fledgling Freddie
Joined
Jan 28, 2004
Messages
26
its supposed to be 2%

since the latest patch it seems to take a hell of a lot more tries to get a 99%, let alone a MP

crafted one of the new piercers today and its taken so far 62 attempts and no Mp yet :/

surely if the chance is 2%, 1 in 50 should be a MP?
 

Mishy

One of Freddy's beloved
Joined
Dec 22, 2003
Messages
194
since patch, made around 4 mps in 50 goes, and last night made 140 shields and no mp. So same old randomness as before it seems.
 

Sissyfoo

Fledgling Freddie
Joined
Dec 22, 2003
Messages
2,814
What are the chances with that new crafting tool quest item? Do they increase whilst it is equipped?
 

Elricstormbringer

Fledgling Freddie
Joined
Dec 23, 2003
Messages
160
Sissyfoo said:
What are the chances with that new crafting tool quest item? Do they increase whilst it is equipped?
No as from what i have read on forums and in a Grab Bag it raises minimum quality by 1% (no 94%) but does not affect MP %age (2% over a long sample). BTW was trinketing the other day and got a 3% MP rate.
 

saks

Fledgling Freddie
Joined
Jan 9, 2004
Messages
393
somtimes you pop 3 mps in 50 tries sometimes you cant get one i 100 tries.
But average its 2% chance :)
 

Chilly

Balls of steel
Joined
Dec 22, 2003
Messages
9,046
as saks says, its absolutely random. i myself once had four!!!!!!!!! consecutive MPs, damn shame they were procs tbh, other times iv had to do 200retries for MP on my tailor, over a big enough sameple it is indeed 2%.

Remember, probabilities mean nothing with individual cases, only populations.
 

TeaSpoon

Fledgling Freddie
Joined
Jan 23, 2004
Messages
554
I've had crap runs. In a 99% order (where I've made 5 attempts at each armour piece) I've made 3 MP's. Other single orders its taken around 100 goes for 1 MP.
 

judas

One of Freddy's beloved
Joined
Dec 22, 2003
Messages
756
Chilly said:
as saks says, its absolutely random. i myself once had four!!!!!!!!! consecutive MPs, damn shame they were procs tbh, other times iv had to do 200retries for MP on my tailor, over a big enough sameple it is indeed 2%.

Remember, probabilities mean nothing with individual cases, only populations.
computers are never 100%random :<
and thers still a avarage % and for all stull i crafted on all my crafters id say ive done about 1-2%mps maybe.
 

Asq

Fledgling Freddie
Joined
Jan 14, 2004
Messages
401
130 tries on a great sword. Results: about 7 99's. Guess we've all been here at a certain point in time. Just hoping these do not occur too often.
 

Palantir

Fledgling Freddie
Joined
Jan 22, 2004
Messages
57
Sissyfoo said:
What are the chances with that new crafting tool quest item? Do they increase whilst it is equipped?

Elricstormbringer said:
No as from what i have read on forums and in a Grab Bag it raises minimum quality by 1% (no 94%) but does not affect MP %age (2% over a long sample).
Could you please tell me the name of this item, or how can you get it?
Thanks.
 

Landor

Fledgling Freddie
Joined
Feb 25, 2004
Messages
48
Yeap it is totaly random and based on luck...
Most counted retries for MP 169...
Less retries 3MP in 20 tries. (unfortunately they were on trinkets :mad: )
From my expirience though, after a long time with no mp, usually you got more than one mp in a few tries that folllow.
 

Xandax

Loyal Freddie
Joined
Mar 4, 2004
Messages
911
Jimbob said:
its supposed to be 2%

since the latest patch it seems to take a hell of a lot more tries to get a 99%, let alone a MP

crafted one of the new piercers today and its taken so far 62 attempts and no Mp yet :/

surely if the chance is 2%, 1 in 50 should be a MP?
What you need to factor in, is that each item you make has an independant percetange chance of every other. Like rolling a dice for instance.
What you rolled in one throw has no effect on what you roll in the next throw - the same with crafting. Each item has a 1/50 chance of becomming a MP, the next item - regardless if the former was MP or not (or any other quality) - also have 1/50 chance.
So with a bad streak of luck - you could make all 95%s out of say hundreds of retrys. Just as you could throw a dice 100 times and not get any 6.

Now for the quality of randomness in the daoc engien - that is a totally different matter :)
 

Raven

I am a FH squatter
FH Subscriber
Joined
Dec 27, 2003
Messages
40,985
I once made around 30 bows with 0 99s/mps then the next day i couldnt stop making 99s its purely random in some messed up way
 

Asq

Fledgling Freddie
Joined
Jan 14, 2004
Messages
401
I’ve had the same happen when going for an mp great sword. Po-ed as a was (that happens sometimes :)) I put up my question at Rightnow. The answer came 2 weeks later, quote: “nothing has changed”.
 

seeph

Fledgling Freddie
Joined
Dec 23, 2003
Messages
245
After spending 7p on a lvl 50 Cleaver MP run and 127 tries i had NO mp, was broke and had 24!!!!!!! 99% cleavers wich i can't seem to sell.

they have been in my CM for 8 weeks and still have about 18 left, they are Priced at an unbelievable LOW price 200g!

so please go 1863 carlinford if u think u can make a profit on them :)
 

judas

One of Freddy's beloved
Joined
Dec 22, 2003
Messages
756
Nice. :p
was someone in alb who had 273 retries on hes shield. :> lucky for him they are realy cheap.
 

Klonk

Can't get enough of FH
Joined
Jan 16, 2004
Messages
790
As someone said: when based on a large number of tries (a large sample - in the language of a statistician) the probability of a MP is 2%. But that doesn't mean that you can craft 50 and get one. It means if you craft 5000 you will get close to 100, if you craft 50 million you get 1 million and so forth. Statistics is often based on _large_ numbers, so you have to be careful when applying them to crafting (i.e. who has the cash to test this?).
 

Rage

Fledgling Freddie
Joined
Jan 8, 2004
Messages
80
Greetings

Depending on how the random numbers are created the 1/50 chance for MP can be more of an aproximate than a statistical fact, even in large sets. Random numbers in computers are picked from a list of existing numbers, based on a mathematical formula, and are thus not true random numbers, but something called pseudo-random. That means that weather you get an MP or not is allready pre-determined by the place in the list where you pick your numbers. Of course there are ways to increase the accuracy of pseudo-random numbers, by good programming.

I myself often feel that if you have a streak of 94-96 and suddenly you start getting 97-98-97-99 then the MP is just around the corner, but I suspect its a trick of the imagination =).

It would be intressting to make a test, say you roll randoms and do it 30 times, if you havent got any 99 or 100 out of those you craft and count the tries to MP, redo 100 times and check if there is an over representation of MP's in the sub 25 tries section. Of course its a bit over ambitious but feel fre to try it =).

with regards
Rage
 

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