A Question to the Thanes out there

[Venom777]

Just been crunching some numbers and was hoping for some input from others. Been trying to work out if respeccing from my current spec which is:

SC 48
HA 44
SH 29
PA 27

To the more favoured:

SC 48
HA 42
SH 42

The number crunching I did was geared around the %age chance to Block and / or parry an incoming blow and came up with the following:

Current
Shield Spec 29 (19.5%) Current Bonus 9 (4.5%) Max Bonus (15(7.5%)) MOB2 (6%) TOTAL = 30% (33% Max Spec)
Parry Spec 27 (18.5%) Current Bonus 7 (3.5%) Max Bonus (15(7.5%)) MOP2 (6%) TOTAL = 28% (32% Max Spec)
TOTAL 58% (65% Max Spec)

Respec
Shield Spec 42 (26%) Current Bonus 9 (4.5%) Max Bonus (15(7.5%)) MOB2 (6%) TOTAL = 36.5% (39.5% Max Spec)
Parry Spec 1 (5.5%) Current Bonus 7 (3.5%) Max Bonus (15(7.5%)) MOP2 (6%) TOTAL = 15% (29% Max Spec)
TOTAL 51.5% (58.5% Max Spec)

The Max Bonus figures are geared around RR5 as well as having Master of Blocking 2 and Master of Parry 2.

If I am reading it right my current spec has a 65% chance to either block or parry an incoming blow, combine this with a now achievable 135 Dex with SpellCrafting and the potential of us getting Evade 1 in a future patch giving us another 5% chance to avoid a blow and you end up with a total of 70% chance to not get hit. Am I over simplifying this, got my calcs wrong or something?

Second question is is it worth respeccing to the other above template in order to get Slam over and above Bash which gives a 7 Second Stun and works off of a block (pretty easy to get when starting off with Engage).

Any and all input gratefully received.

 

[Gallak]

Slam Shammy end regen = f8 /stick slam, f8 /stick slam, f8 /stick slam. Repeat until all opposing tanks stunned and killed by the other members of your group

 

[Solid]

You are over simplifying it.

There is an order of resolution for defence skills.

Not sure of order but Miss>>Block>>Parry>>Evade I think

Its not a total accumulative chance, cos their is an order so the chance is much lower, works our in the Mid 40's usually but is modified by Dex (unknown modofication amount)

 

[Gallak]

Solid speaks the truth Basically if you don't block it you have a chance to parry, which makes the percentages multiplied instead of added, or something like that, been a while since I did probability in school.

 

[Todin]

So the block "roll" is before parry?

Think its calculated like this:
36,5% for block (rolled first)
15% * (100%-36,5%) = 9,5% for parry and no block

36,5% +9,5% = 46% chance for block or parry

The % for block and parry are modified by using opponent stats in some way.. post it someone if you got the formula